Home > Positive outlook for 2012 according to Rabobank's Beef Quarterly report

Positive outlook for 2012 according to Rabobank's Beef Quarterly report

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article image Rabobank's Beef Quarterly report was co-authored by Wendy Voss

Rabobank  has released its quarterly global beef market industry report.  The Rabobank Beef Quarterly report found that the long term outlook remains bullish, whilst a number of  perceived short term obstacles include:

  • elevated currencies,
  • global economic uncertainty, and
  • climate risks. 

A key factor that to providing a positive outlook for the beef industry in 2012 is the reduction in Us cattle herd, which is a major competitor with Australia in beef export markets, caused by a severe drought across the US.  The Australian live export market  also looks to remain strong with the potential of reaching record prices this quarter.  

The longer term forecast suggests that after an initial slump in cattle prices in the first quarter of 2012 prices can expect to rise, due to the fact that population growth and increasing demand for beef in emerging global markets is rising higher than current supply levels.  

A number of factors led to the decrease in prices experienced in Australian markets during quarter two and three of 2011:

  • the very high Australian dollar,
  • the effect of the Japanese tsunami,
  • the seasonal lowering of demand from Russia and Korea, and
  • uncertainty surrounding the resumption of trade with Indonesia.  

Prices can be expected to recover by the end of the third quarter as these pressures begin to ease and Indonesian market prices rise with limited availability of cattle that meet the 350kg maximum live weight limit.  

Demand could however remain low due to declining export returns from a strong Australian dollar and the impact of an uncertain global economy on consumer confidence in certain Australian beef markets.

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